# Expected Strokes > Canonical: https://pinflag.io/glossary/expected-strokes ## Expected Strokes URL: https://pinflag.io/glossary/expected-strokes > Expected strokes is the average number of strokes a benchmark golfer needs to finish a hole from a specific distance and lie, and it is the number strokes gained subtracts before and after every shot. Expected strokes is the mechanism behind [strokes gained](https://pinflag.io/glossary/strokes-gained): every position on a hole, defined by a distance and a [lie](https://pinflag.io/glossary/lie), has an expected-strokes value, and a shot's strokes gained is simply the change in that value from before the shot to after it, minus the stroke just played. See [baseline](https://pinflag.io/glossary/baseline) for how that reference value is built. The number moves sharply with both distance and lie. From 8 feet on the green, PinFlag's Broadie-verified baselines put expected strokes at 1.500; from 25 feet, it's 1.931. From 155 yards in the fairway, expected strokes is 2.960; from the same 155 yards in the rough, it rises to 3.210 — the extra strokes that lie typically costs. Expected strokes lets a coach make like-for-like comparisons across very different starting points: a green hit from heavy rough and one hit from the fairway are not equally difficult positions, and expected strokes quantifies exactly how much harder one is than the other. Try the [free strokes gained calculator](https://pinflag.io/strokes-gained-calculator) to see it applied to a full round. See also: [Strokes Gained Explained: The Complete Guide](https://pinflag.io/guides/strokes-gained) Sources: [Mark Broadie — Every Shot Counts (2014)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strokes_gained)