# Expected Value > Canonical: https://pinflag.io/glossary/expected-value ## Expected Value URL: https://pinflag.io/glossary/expected-value > Expected value is the probability-weighted average outcome of a decision across every way it could turn out, used in golf to compare options like laying up versus going for a green. Expected value is a general statistics and decision-theory concept, not a golf-specific one: multiply each possible outcome by its probability and add the results together. In golf, it explains why a shot that fails more often than it succeeds can still be the smarter play, when the reward on the good outcomes outweighs the cost of the bad ones — and why a shot that usually works can still be a poor decision if its rare failure is expensive enough. [Expected strokes](https://pinflag.io/glossary/expected-strokes) is expected value applied to one specific input: the average strokes needed to finish a hole from a given starting position, averaged across every way the rest of the hole could unfold from there. [Strokes gained](https://pinflag.io/glossary/strokes-gained) then compares expected value before and after a shot to price what that single shot was worth. Evaluating expected value for a real decision — go for a green over water, or lay up short of it — depends on knowing a golfer's own [dispersion](https://pinflag.io/glossary/dispersion). The same aggressive line carries very different expected value for a tight ball-striker than for a wild one, because the two golfers reach the costly outcomes at very different rates. See also: [Strokes Gained vs. Traditional Stats](https://pinflag.io/guides/strokes-gained-vs-traditional-stats) Sources: [Mark Broadie — Every Shot Counts (2014)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strokes_gained)