# Go for it, or lay up

From 220 yards in the fairway going for a green with no penalty in play is worth 2.232 expected strokes after the shot on a typical dispersion against 2.820 for laying up to 100 yards, and the answer flips when the chance of a penalty passes about 28%. Every distance from 160 to 280 yards has its own page below.

## Key figures

- From 220 yards going for the green with no penalty in play is worth 2.232 expected strokes after the shot; laying up to 100 yards is worth 2.820.
- The answer flips when the chance of a penalty passes about 28% from 220 yards on a typical dispersion.

## Scope

- Every figure comes from the site’s aim model with a stated green, pin offset and dispersion, on the published tour baseline.

Full page: https://pinflag.io/go-for-it