# Which golf stats actually predict scoring

Fairways hit, greens in regulation and putts per round each hide something, and putts per round can move in the opposite direction to putting skill. The two facts worth recording are the lie and distance before every shot and where the ball finished, because every traditional statistic can be rebuilt from those and not the reverse.

## Key figures

- Two plausible rounds: a golfer taking 31 putts can be gaining +2.00 on the putting baseline while one taking 30 loses 1.95, because missing greens leaves shorter first putts.
- A green hit to 10 feet is worth about 0.43 of a stroke more than the same green hit to 40 feet, and greens in regulation counts them the same.

## Scope

- Greens in regulation is the strongest of the traditional three and still says nothing about proximity.

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