Golf term
Expected Strokes
Expected strokes is the average number of strokes a benchmark golfer needs to finish a hole from a specific distance and lie, and it is the number strokes gained subtracts before and after every shot.
Expected strokes is the mechanism behind strokes gained: every position on a hole, defined by a distance and a lie, has an expected-strokes value, and a shot's strokes gained is simply the change in that value from before the shot to after it, minus the stroke just played. See baseline for how that reference value is built.
The number moves sharply with both distance and lie. From 8 feet on the green, PinFlag's Broadie-verified baselines put expected strokes at 1.500; from 25 feet, it's 1.931. From 155 yards in the fairway, expected strokes is 2.960; from the same 155 yards in the rough, it rises to 3.210 — the extra strokes that lie typically costs.
Expected strokes lets a coach make like-for-like comparisons across very different starting points: a green hit from heavy rough and one hit from the fairway are not equally difficult positions, and expected strokes quantifies exactly how much harder one is than the other. Try the free strokes gained calculator to see it applied to a full round.
Sources
Related terms & guides
Strokes Gained
Strokes Gained Explained: The Complete Guide
Strokes gained measures every shot against a benchmark of expected scores, revealing exactly where you gain or lose strokes versus a chosen standard — instead of guessing from fairways, greens, and putts.
Glossary
Baseline (Expected Strokes)
A baseline is the average number of strokes a benchmark golfer needs to hole out from a given distance and lie — the reference every strokes gained calculation is measured against.
Glossary
Expected Value
Expected value is the probability-weighted average outcome of a decision across every way it could turn out, used in golf to compare options like laying up versus going for a green.
Glossary
Proximity to Hole
Proximity to the hole is the average distance your shots finish from the cup, usually measured for approach shots from a given range.
Guide
Strokes Gained Explained: The Complete Guide