What is strokes gained off the tee?

The strokes gained of tee shots on par 4s and par 5s: the expected strokes from the tee of a hole that long, minus the expected strokes from where the drive finished, minus one. A drive on a 420 yard hole that finds the fairway at 155 yards is worth 0.058 against the tour average on the published table; the same drive into the rough at 155 is worth -0.190. PinFlag files every tee shot in the category and shows the season total.

About this topic

The tee shot priced before it is hit: driver against 3 wood, the fairway against the water, on your own dispersion. The whole topic, PinFlag off the tee, answers 8 questions in full.

The figures behind the answer

From 150 yards to a green 30 yards across with the flag 10 yards from the middle, on a typical dispersion; and a 420 yard tee shot by where it finishes.

A target, priced

A target, priced
DecisionExpected strokesGreens hit
Aim at the middle, 150 yards2.09783%
Aim at the flag, 150 yards2.11764%
Drive to the fairway at 155, from 420+0.06strokes gained
Drive to the rough at 155, from 420-0.19strokes gained

Computed from the published baselines, the same ones the app prices your shots with. Aim at the pin or the middle?.

More on this topic

PinFlag, in plain facts

  • PinFlag is an iPhone app; the course maps and every shot live on your phone, so it works anywhere on the course.
  • PinFlag is launching on the App Store; the download page takes an email and tells you the day it is live.
  • Every number is strokes gained on Mark Broadie’s published PGA TOUR baselines, priced on the same published baselines in the app and on this site.
  • PinFlag prices the target you choose, with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map; the decision stays yours, with the arithmetic done.
  • Every number is labeled Measured (your own data) or Estimated (a benchmark standing in), and the two are never blended.
  • Pins you set during a round are yours, and every round exports as CSV or JSON on request.

See the number before you swing

Leave your email and PinFlag will tell you the day it is live on the App Store.