PinFlag

Should You Aim at the Pin?

What aiming at the flag costs against the middle, in strokes, from your own pattern.

A tucked pin is 10 to 15. A middle pin is 0.

Half the width. A 30 yard green is 15.

One standard deviation. Blank uses 9.0 for this distance.

Blank uses 6.8.

What aiming at the pin costs against aiming at the middle

0.020strokes

The middle is worth fewer strokes with this pattern. You still choose.

Both aim points

Aiming at the pin

Expected strokes2.117
Finish on the green64 percent
Average distance left9.9 yards

Aiming at the middle

Expected strokes2.097
Finish on the green83 percent
Average distance left13.3 yards

Aiming at the pin always leaves the ball closer on average. The question is whether the shots that miss cost more than the shots that finish close save, and that is what the strokes column answers.

How this is worked out

Your shots land in a pattern, not on a point, so an aim point is not one outcome but a spread of them. This prices the whole spread:

take a 25 by 25 grid of landing spots out to 3 standard deviations
weight each by how likely it is under a normal spread
price each finish with the published expected strokes table
average

A finish on the putting surface is priced as a putt from that distance. A finish off it is priced from the surround you chose. The grid is fixed rather than random, so the same inputs always give the same number and two people checking it agree.

The one number that moves everything is your side spread. A tight pattern makes the pin cheap, because few shots reach the trouble beside it. A wide one makes the middle better, because the misses cost more than the close ones save.

Bunkers beat rough

Change the surround from rough to a bunker and the tucked pin gets cheaper, not dearer. The published tables put a greenside bunker at 2.53 strokes and greenside rough at 2.59: a bunker shot from a lie you can read beats a guess out of thick grass. Most golfers protect against the sand and take on the rough, which is backwards.

The number, not a verdict

This page shows what each aim point is worth and stops there. You know things it does not: the wind, the lie, whether you need a birdie. PinFlag works the same way on the course, pricing any target you point at and leaving the choice with you.

Frequently asked questions

Should you aim at the pin or the middle of the green?
It depends entirely on how wide your pattern is and how tucked the pin is. This page gives the strokes for both, so the decision is yours with the number in front of you rather than a rule of thumb.
How much does pin hunting cost?
With a typical amateur pattern at 150 yards and a pin 10 yards from the middle, it is usually a few hundredths to a few tenths of a stroke. Small on one hole, and it adds up across a season.
Is it better to miss in a bunker or the rough?
The published tables say a greenside bunker averages 2.53 strokes and greenside rough 2.59. A bunker shot from a known lie beats a guess out of thick grass, which surprises most golfers.
What if I do not know my dispersion?
The page starts from side spread near 6 percent of the carry distance, which is typical for a full iron. If you have imported a launch monitor file you have better numbers than any default, and you can type them in.

By The PinFlag Team.

Before the swing, not after

This page prices one shot once you already know where it finished. PinFlag prices any target you are looking at, live on the hole you are playing, on 40,000+ courses. You pick the target and see the number before you swing.

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