Golf course management, priced
Course management is choosing targets by expected strokes instead of hope, and every decision on a hole can be priced: a driver against a 3 wood on a tight hole, the flag against the middle of the green, going for it against laying up. On the published table a tee shot out of bounds costs 2.05 strokes and a tucked pin costs an accurate striker 0.02, which is the arithmetic the decisions are made on.
Decision one: the tee shot
The question is not how narrow the fairway looks but where the trouble is. A miss into rough costs about a quarter of a stroke; a miss into water or out of bounds costs close to two. The tee shot model prices three clubs on two holes of the same length, one with water 32 yards from the line and one with nothing to fear.
Driver, 3 wood and long iron on two holes
A 400 yard hole; driver total 250 with a 22 yard side spread.
| Hole | Club | Fairways hit | Penalty rate | Expected strokes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water 32 yards from the line | Driver | 53% | 7% | 4.172 |
| Water 32 yards from the line | 3 wood | 57% | 4% | 4.246 |
| Water 32 yards from the line | Long iron | 61% | 3% | 4.373 |
| Open hole | Driver | 57% | 0% | 4.054 |
| Open hole | 3 wood | 65% | 0% | 4.165 |
| Open hole | Long iron | 69% | 0% | 4.323 |
On the open hole the driver wins because distance is worth more than the fairways it misses. On the tight hole the shorter club wins because it takes the penalty out of play.
Decision two: the target
From 150 yards to a green 30 yards across with the flag tucked 10 yards from the middle, aiming at the flag costs a golfer with a typical pattern 0.020 strokes against aiming at the middle, and 19 percentage points of greens hit. A golfer with a wide pattern loses only -0.003, because most of that spread misses the green either way. Same yardage, same flag, two different decisions, and the number tells them apart.
Decision three: the lay up
Laying up to a full wedge feels safe and is usually the wrong call from the rough. The table prices advancing from 180, 200 and 220 yards in the rough and from a recovery lie against laying up to 100 yards in the fairway.
Advancing against laying up to 100 yards
| Lie | From | Advancing | Laying up | Advancing is better by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rough | 180 yards | 3.310 | 3.800 | 0.49 |
| Rough | 200 yards | 3.420 | 3.800 | 0.38 |
| Rough | 220 yards | 3.530 | 3.800 | 0.27 |
| Recovery | 180 yards | 3.820 | 3.800 | -0.02 |
| Recovery | 200 yards | 3.870 | 3.800 | -0.07 |
| Recovery | 220 yards | 3.920 | 3.800 | -0.12 |
From the rough, advancing beats laying up at every distance. From a recovery lie the sign flips: chipping out to 100 is the better play.
Decision four: the penalty
Every decision above has a penalty version, and the penalty is the most expensive outcome in golf: 2.05 strokes for a tee shot out of bounds on a 400 yard hole. A line that carries a one in ten chance of water costs a fifth of a stroke before the ball is struck, which is more than most tucked pins cost. Price the penalty first and most decisions make themselves.
In PinFlag
PinFlag makes every one of these decisions on the hole you are playing: put the aim on the fairway, the corner, the flag, the fat side or the lay up and read the strokes gained of each with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course, hazards priced with the penalty included. Shot Cloud draws your shots around the target so the share of your spread that reaches the trouble is a picture of your own game.
Frequently asked questions
What is course management in golf?
Should I aim at the pin or the middle of the green?
When should I lay up?
Is driver always the right club?
Which golf app does this on the course?
Related
Sources
- PGA TOUR statistics
- Mark Broadie, Columbia Business School (Wikidata entity)
- How PinFlag calculates strokes gained
Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: The tee shot and target figures come from the site’s dispersion models with stated spreads; the lay up and penalty figures are the published baseline.
Get PinFlag for iPhone
PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.