The 150 yard shot

From every lie

The same yardage is a different shot from each lie, and the published tables price the difference: the rough costs 0.25 of a stroke more than the fairway at 150 yards and the sand 0.31 more. The benchmark columns add the per shot gap the benchmark model gives each handicap, labeled Modeled, so a 20 handicap can read the shot on their own scale.

Expected strokes to hole out from 150 yards

What each finish is worth

The value of the approach is the expected strokes where it started minus the expected putts where it finished, minus one for the shot. From 150 yards the fairway start is 2.945, so the finish decides everything: inside 26 feet the shot gained on the tour average, outside it the shot cost. From the rough the break even is 57 feet, because the shot beat a harder average.

An approach from 150 yards, by finish

Pin or middle

On a typical 150 yard dispersion (9 yards side to side and 7 yards long and short, one standard deviation) to a green 30 yards across with rough around it, aiming at a flag 8 yards from the middle costs 0.016 strokes against aiming at the middle and 13% of greens hit. With the flag 12 yards from the middle the pin costs 0.046. The middle leaves an average of 36 feet to the hole against 30 feet at the flag; the pin is closer when it is hit and expensive when it is missed.

Which club it takes

On the handicap model, the shortest club whose carry reaches 150 yards: a 10 handicap takes a 6 iron that carries 153 yards. The club matters less than the carry number behind it; a launch monitor session replaces the model with yours.

The club that carries 150 yards

Ten yards either way

Ten yards closer, at 140, is worth 0.04 of a stroke on the fairway table; ten yards further, at 160, costs 0.04. The table is nearly flat here, so a comfortable full swing beats squeezing ten yards closer.

In PinFlag

On the course PinFlag prices this shot before you hit it: put the aim on the flag and read the strokes gained with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, then move it to the middle and read that. Shot Cloud draws your real shots with the club around each target, so the share of your spread that finds the bunker is your own pattern, and the plays like distance tells you what the club has to cover.

Afterwards Insights files the shot in the 125 to 150 yard band with its proximity in feet, so the range that costs you shows up as a number rather than a feeling.

Related

• The 145 yard shot
• The 155 yard shot
• Strokes gained approach
• Proximity to the hole
• Aim at the pin or the middle?
• Every approach distance

Sources

• PGA TOUR statistics
• Mark Broadie, Columbia Business School (Wikidata entity)
• How PinFlag calculates strokes gained

Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: The lie values are the published tour baseline at 150 yards; the pin figures use the site’s dispersion model with a stated spread and green, and the club column is the handicap speed model.