Par 3 strategy, priced
A par 3 is one approach and the miss decides it: from 150 yards the tour average needs 2.980 strokes, a green hit to 30 feet leaves 1.984 and a miss into a bunker 20 yards from the flag leaves 2.530. Aiming at a flag 8 yards from the middle costs a typical 150 yard dispersion 0.016 strokes with rough around the green and 0.006 with sand.
The miss is the number
A par 3 tee shot is an approach, so it is priced by where it finishes, and the published tables say the finish that matters is the lie of the miss rather than the distance of the hit. A green hit to 30 feet and a miss into the fringe are close; a miss into sand is most of a bogey.
Expected strokes left after the tee shot
| Finish | Expected strokes |
|---|---|
| Green, 30 feet | 1.984 |
| Fringe or fairway, 20 yards | 2.400 |
| Rough, 20 yards | 2.590 |
| Sand, 20 yards | 2.530 |
| Rough, 40 yards | 2.780 |
Pin or middle, by distance
The pin costs more the longer the shot and the worse the surround, because the dispersion grows with distance and the miss lands in whatever is beside the flag. The table runs a typical dispersion at four lengths with the flag 8 yards from the middle.
The cost of the pin against the middle
| Length | Pin cost, rough surround | Pin cost, sand surround | Greens hit, middle | Greens hit, pin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 130 yards | 0.007 | -0.003 | 91% | 76% |
| 150 yards | 0.016 | 0.006 | 83% | 70% |
| 170 yards | 0.021 | 0.012 | 75% | 63% |
| 190 yards | 0.024 | 0.015 | 69% | 58% |
The carry, not the club
On the handicap model a 150 yard par 3 is a 7 iron for a scratch golfer, a 6 iron for a 10 handicap and a 4 iron for a 20. The name of the club is beside the point; the carry number that reaches the spot you chose is the whole decision, and a launch monitor session is what makes it yours.
In PinFlag
On every par 3 PinFlag prices the flag and the middle before you swing with your own dispersion drawn on the green by Shot Cloud, the bunkers read from the course map and the plays like distance for the club in hand, so the decision is between two real outcomes rather than a yardage and a feeling.
Frequently asked questions
Should you aim at the middle of the green on a par 3?
What does missing a par 3 green cost?
Is long or short the better miss on a par 3?
How much is one club more worth on a par 3?
Which golf app does this on the course?
Related
Sources
- PGA TOUR statistics
- Mark Broadie, Columbia Business School (Wikidata entity)
- Golf course, Wikipedia
- How PinFlag calculates strokes gained
Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: The lie values are the published tour baseline; the pin figures use the site’s dispersion model with a stated spread, green and pin offset.
Get PinFlag for iPhone
PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.