Expected Strokes Table
Expected strokes to hole out, by lie and distance. Pick a benchmark to compare.
| Yards | PGA Tour |
|---|---|
| 20 | 2.40 |
| 40 | 2.60 |
| 60 | 2.70 |
| 80 | 2.75 |
| 100 | 2.80 |
| 120 | 2.85 |
| 140 | 2.91 |
| 160 | 2.98 |
| 180 | 3.08 |
| 200 | 3.19 |
| 220 | 3.32 |
| 240 | 3.42 |
| 260 | 3.53 |
| 280 | 3.62 |
| 300 | 3.71 |
The PGA Tour column is the measured baseline. Pick a handicap to see the modeled column beside it.
How this is worked out
The PGA Tour column is the published baseline: the average strokes to hole out from each lie and distance. Distances between two rows are read straight down the line between them.
The handicap columns are modeled from it, and here is the model in full. A golfer with a handicap of H is taken to shoot 72 plus H, so they use H plus 1 more strokes than the 71 the tour table represents. Those extra strokes are spread the way the published research splits them:
- 65 percent over 14 long shots, meaning tee shots and anything over 100 yards
- 20 percent over 7 short game shots inside 100 yards
- 15 percent over 30 putts
Worked example. A 10 handicap is taken to shoot 82, which is 11 strokes over the tour table. Their long game share is 11 times 0.65, spread over 14 shots, so 0.511 strokes per shot. From the fairway at 150 yards that gives 2.945 plus 0.511, which is 3.456.
Read the flat part
The most useful thing in this table is how little changes between 40 and 100 yards from the fairway. Laying back to a comfortable full swing costs almost nothing. Being in the sand or the rough at the same distance costs a great deal more, which is why the lie column matters more than the yardage column.
Where the strokes go
The benchmark table splits the strokes every handicap gives up to the tour average across the long game, the short game, and putting, per round and per shot.
Frequently asked questions
What are expected strokes in golf?
How many strokes to hole out from 150 yards?
Where does this table come from?
Why is a 40 yard shot harder than a 60 yard shot?
By The PinFlag Team.
Before the swing, not after
This page prices one shot once you already know where it finished. PinFlag prices any target you are looking at, live on the hole you are playing, on 40,000+ courses. You pick the target and see the number before you swing.
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