A 300 yard par 4

What the hole costs

The published tee table prices a par 4 by its length alone: 3.710 strokes to hole out from 300 yards. The tour average beats par here by 0.29, which makes the hole a scoring chance. Everything below is how those strokes are spent.

The tee shot

The tee shot model prices a driver of 250 yards with a 22 yard side spread, a 3 wood and a long iron on this hole twice: once open, with nothing to fear inside 90 yards of the line, and once with water 32 yards from it. On the open version the driver prices lowest at 3.718 strokes; with the water in play the driver prices lowest at 3.860. The trouble is not close enough to change the club on this hole.

Three clubs off the tee on a 300 yard par 4

Expected strokes counts the tee shot and the hole from where it finishes, with a penalty priced as the stroke plus a replay.

The approach it leaves

At 300 yards a 250 yard drive leaves a pitch of 50 yards, and the published lie tables begin at 20 yards, so the second shot is priced near its floor from anywhere in play. The hole is decided by the tee shot: a penalty costs the stroke plus a replay, and the shorter clubs in the table above take that out of play at the cost of a longer pitch.

The approach left on a 300 yard par 4

By handicap

The benchmark model adds a fixed per shot gap to the tour figure for each handicap, labeled Modeled. On a 300 yard par 4 the tour average is 3.710 from the tee; a 20 handicap starts at about 4.685. The whole hole gap is larger than the tee figure shows, because every later shot carries its own gap too.

Expected strokes from the tee, by benchmark

In PinFlag

On a 300 yard par 4 PinFlag prices the tee shot before you hit it: put the aim on the fairway, the corner or the lay up and read the strokes gained of each with your own driver dispersion drawn on the hole by Shot Cloud, hazards priced with the penalty included. The approach is priced the same way from the leave, with the lie read from the course map, and Insights files both by distance band afterwards.

Related

• A 290 yard par 4
• A 310 yard par 4
• Par 4 strategy, priced
• The 100 yard shot
• Driver or 3 wood?
• Every hole, priced

Sources

• PGA TOUR statistics
• Mark Broadie, Columbia Business School (Wikidata entity)
• Golf course, Wikipedia
• How PinFlag calculates strokes gained

Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: The tee figure is the published tour table for a hole of this length; the tee shot rows come from the site’s dispersion model with a stated driver distance and spread on two versions of the hole.