Par 4 strategy, priced
A par 4 is a tee shot and an approach, and the published tables price both: a drive that leaves 125 yards instead of 175 is worth 0.19 of a stroke before the iron is struck, the rough costs about 0.25 against the fairway at 150 yards, and a tee shot out of bounds costs two strokes. On an open hole the driver’s distance is worth more than the fairways it misses; beside water the shorter club wins.
Driver or not
The tee shot model prices a 250 yard driver with a 22 yard side spread against a 3 wood and a long iron on four holes. The fairway width is not what decides it; the distance to the trouble is.
Three clubs on four par 4s
| Hole | Club | Fairways hit | Penalty rate | Expected strokes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 320 yards, open | Driver | 57% | 0% | 3.808 |
| 320 yards, open | 3 wood | 65% | 0% | 3.877 |
| 320 yards, open | Long iron | 69% | 0% | 3.954 |
| 380 yards, open | Driver | 57% | 0% | 3.983 |
| 380 yards, open | 3 wood | 65% | 0% | 4.072 |
| 380 yards, open | Long iron | 69% | 0% | 4.208 |
| 420 yards, water 32 yards out | Driver | 53% | 7% | 4.250 |
| 420 yards, water 32 yards out | 3 wood | 57% | 4% | 4.349 |
| 420 yards, water 32 yards out | Long iron | 61% | 3% | 4.482 |
| 460 yards, open | Driver | 57% | 0% | 4.349 |
| 460 yards, open | 3 wood | 65% | 0% | 4.496 |
| 460 yards, open | Long iron | 69% | 0% | 4.639 |
Leave the number you want
The approach is priced by its distance and its lie. The table is steep above 150 yards and flat below 120, which is why a drive that leaves a wedge is the par strategy on any hole where the drive is safe.
The approach by distance and lie
| Approach | From the fairway | From the rough | The rough costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 yards | 2.800 | 3.020 | 0.22 |
| 125 yards | 2.865 | 3.098 | 0.23 |
| 150 yards | 2.945 | 3.190 | 0.25 |
| 175 yards | 3.055 | 3.290 | 0.24 |
| 200 yards | 3.190 | 3.420 | 0.23 |
Advance from the rough
Laying up from the rough to a full wedge feels safe and the published tables say it is usually wrong: the rough averages already price in the bad outcomes, and a lay up spends a guaranteed shot to avoid them. Only a genuine recovery lie, with no swing at the ball, makes chipping out the better play.
Advancing against laying up to 100 yards, from the rough
| From | Advancing | Laying up | Advancing is better by |
|---|---|---|---|
| 180 yards | 3.310 | 3.800 | 0.49 |
| 200 yards | 3.420 | 3.800 | 0.38 |
| 220 yards | 3.530 | 3.800 | 0.27 |
In PinFlag
On every par 4 PinFlag prices the tee shot and the approach before you hit them, with your own dispersion drawn on the hole by Shot Cloud and the lie read from the course map, so driver or 3 wood and flag or middle are numbers on the hole you are playing rather than rules.
Frequently asked questions
Is driver always right on a par 4?
How much is a drive that leaves a wedge worth?
Should I lay up from the rough on a par 4?
What does a penalty cost on a par 4?
Which golf app does this on the course?
Related
Sources
- PGA TOUR statistics
- Mark Broadie, Columbia Business School (Wikidata entity)
- Golf course, Wikipedia
- How PinFlag calculates strokes gained
Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: The tee shot rows come from the site’s dispersion model with a stated driver distance and spread; the approach and lay up figures are the published baseline.
Get PinFlag for iPhone
PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.