PinFlag

Driver or 3 Wood?

What each club off the tee is worth on this hole, in strokes.

A generous fairway is 40. A tight one is 25.

Water or out of bounds. Set it high if there is none.

One standard deviation. Near 10 percent of your distance is typical.

Blank scales it with the distance, giving 23.0. Put your own number in.

What the driver costs against the 3 wood on this hole

-0.066strokes

The driver is worth fewer strokes on this hole. You still choose.

Both clubs off this tee

Expected strokes for each club off the tee
ClubExpected strokesFairwayTroubleApproach left
Driver4.29748 percent12 percent160 yards
3 wood4.36357 percent9 percent190 yards
Driver finds the trouble12 percent
3 wood finds the trouble9 percent

Leave the 3 wood spread blank and the driver wins almost every hole, because scaling the spread with the distance is generous to it. Put in the spread you actually have with each club and the crossover appears where it really is for you.

How this is worked out

Each club is priced by putting its pattern on the hole and pricing every landing spot:

inside the fairway edge, price the approach from the fairway
outside it but short of the trouble, price it from the rough
past the trouble, 2 strokes plus playing the hole again
add 1 for the tee shot, weight each spot by how likely it is, average

A shorter club is straighter roughly in proportion to how much shorter it is, because the spread is a share of how far the ball travels. So the 3 wood here carries 88 percent of the driver distance and 88 percent of its spread, and the long iron 76 percent of both.

The two misses are priced very differently on purpose. The rough is worth about a quarter of a stroke against the fairway; the trouble is worth close to two. That gap is the whole reason the answer changes from hole to hole.

Narrow is not dangerous

A tight fairway with rough on both sides barely moves the number, because rough is cheap. A wide fairway with water down one side moves it a lot. Golfers routinely lay back on the first and take on the second, which is exactly backwards, and this page shows why in strokes rather than in opinions.

Find your crossover

Drag the trouble line in and the order flips at some point. Where it flips depends on your spread, so it is your crossover and not a rule. PinFlag does the same thing on the course, pricing the target you are actually looking at before you swing.

Frequently asked questions

Should I hit driver on a tight hole?
It depends on where the trouble is rather than how narrow the fairway looks. Rough costs very little; water and out of bounds cost close to two strokes. This page separates the two, because they are not the same risk.
Is a 3 wood more accurate than a driver?
Usually, and roughly in proportion to how much shorter it is: the spread is a share of how far the ball travels. That is the relationship this page uses, and you can override it with your own numbers.
How much does missing the fairway cost?
Less than most golfers expect. On the published tables, playing an approach from the rough rather than the fairway is worth about a quarter of a stroke, which is why laying back to find more fairways rarely pays on a hole with no real trouble.
When does laying back off the tee actually pay?
When the shorter club takes a penalty out of play. Narrow the trouble line on this page and watch the order change: the crossover is the point of the tool.

By The PinFlag Team.

Before the swing, not after

This page prices one shot once you already know where it finished. PinFlag prices any target you are looking at, live on the hole you are playing, on 40,000+ courses. You pick the target and see the number before you swing.

Get the app