A 430 yard par 4
A 430 yard par 4 costs the tour average 4.050 strokes from the tee, 0.05 over par. A 250 yard drive leaves 180 yards, from where the fairway table needs 3.080 strokes and the rough 3.310, so a par from the fairway is better than the average player manages.
What the hole costs
The published tee table prices a par 4 by its length alone: 4.050 strokes to hole out from 430 yards. The tour average sits 0.05 above par here, which makes a par a stroke gained on the tour field. Everything below is how those strokes are spent.
The tee shot
The tee shot model prices a driver of 250 yards with a 22 yard side spread, a 3 wood and a long iron on this hole twice: once open, with nothing to fear inside 90 yards of the line, and once with water 32 yards from it. On the open version the driver prices lowest at 4.185 strokes; with the water in play the driver prices lowest at 4.294. The trouble is not close enough to change the club on this hole.
Three clubs off the tee on a 430 yard par 4
| Hole | Club | Fairways hit | Penalty rate | Average approach | Expected strokes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | Driver | 57% | 0% | 180 yards | 4.185 |
| Open | 3 wood | 65% | 0% | 210 yards | 4.331 |
| Open | Long iron | 69% | 0% | 240 yards | 4.489 |
| Water 32 yards out | Driver | 53% | 7% | 180 yards | 4.294 |
| Water 32 yards out | 3 wood | 57% | 4% | 210 yards | 4.404 |
| Water 32 yards out | Long iron | 61% | 3% | 240 yards | 4.534 |
Expected strokes counts the tee shot and the hole from where it finishes, with a penalty priced as the stroke plus a replay.
The approach it leaves
Each club off the tee leaves a different approach, and the published fairway and rough tables price the difference. Even a driver leaves a mid or long iron here, so the drive is worth its distance. From the driver’s leave the average player is expected to need more than two, so a par is a gain.
The approach left on a 430 yard par 4
| Tee club | Tee shot | Approach | From the fairway | From the rough |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | 250 yards | 180 yards | 3.080 | 3.310 |
| 3 wood | 220 yards | 210 yards | 3.255 | 3.475 |
| Long iron | 190 yards | 240 yards | 3.420 | 3.640 |
By handicap
The benchmark model adds a fixed per shot gap to the tour figure for each handicap, labeled Modeled. On a 430 yard par 4 the tour average is 4.050 from the tee; a 20 handicap starts at about 5.025. The whole hole gap is larger than the tee figure shows, because every later shot carries its own gap too.
Expected strokes from the tee, by benchmark
| Benchmark | Expected strokes |
|---|---|
| Tour | 4.050 |
| Scratch | 4.096 |
| 10 handicap | 4.561 |
| 20 handicap | 5.025 |
In PinFlag
On a 430 yard par 4 PinFlag prices the tee shot before you hit it: put the aim on the fairway, the corner or the lay up and read the strokes gained of each with your own driver dispersion drawn on the hole by Shot Cloud, hazards priced with the penalty included. The approach is priced the same way from the leave, with the lie read from the course map, and Insights files both by distance band afterwards.
Frequently asked questions
What is the average score on a 430 yard par 4?
Should I hit driver on a 430 yard par 4?
What does a 250 yard drive leave on a 430 yard par 4?
How many strokes does a 20 handicap need on a 430 yard par 4?
Which golf app does this on the course?
Related
Sources
- PGA TOUR statistics
- Mark Broadie, Columbia Business School (Wikidata entity)
- Golf course, Wikipedia
- How PinFlag calculates strokes gained
Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: The tee figure is the published tour table for a hole of this length; the tee shot rows come from the site’s dispersion model with a stated driver distance and spread on two versions of the hole.
Get PinFlag for iPhone
PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.