Par 5 strategy, priced

On a par 5, going for the green from 230 yards with no penalty in play is worth 2.245 expected strokes to hole out on the published table against 2.820 for laying up to 100 yards; add a one in ten chance of water and going for it rises to 2.457. The penalty decides the hole, not the yardage.

Going for it

The second shot on a reachable par 5 is priced across every place the ball might finish: on the green, in the surround, or in a hazard. With no hazard in play the miss is a chip, and the table prices a chip from around the green at roughly two and a half strokes to hole out, which is why going for it survives a low hit rate.

Going for the green from 230 yards

A green 30 yards across with rough around it, the pin 5 yards from the middle, and a typical 230 yard dispersion.

Going for the green from 230 yards
Penalty chance	Expected strokes to hole out
None	2.245
One in ten	2.457
Three in ten	2.882

Laying up

Laying up trades the chance of reaching for a full shot from a chosen distance. The differences between lay up numbers are smaller than golfers expect, because the published table is nearly flat from 60 to 120 yards.

Laying up, by the number left

Laying up, by the number left
Lay up to	Expected strokes after the lay up
60 yards	2.600
80 yards	2.720
100 yards	2.820
120 yards	2.907

Expected strokes includes the lay up shot itself and the approach that follows.

The flat part of the table

The reason the lay up number matters less than it feels: from the fairway, the tour average changes very little between 60 and 120 yards. Laying back to a comfortable full swing costs almost nothing, and laying up to an awkward half shot to be ten yards closer gains almost nothing.

Expected strokes from the fairway

Expected strokes from the fairway
Distance	Expected strokes to hole out
60 yards	2.700
80 yards	2.750
100 yards	2.800
120 yards	2.850

In PinFlag

On a par 5 PinFlag prices the second shot before you hit it: put the aim on the green and read the strokes gained with your own dispersion and the hazard priced with the penalty included; put it on the lay up spot and read that. Shot Cloud draws your shots with the club around each target, so the share that reaches the water is your own pattern rather than a guess.

Frequently asked questions

Should I go for a par 5 in two?

With no penalty in play, usually yes: from 230 yards going for it is worth 2.245 expected strokes against 2.820 for laying up to 100 on the published table. With water in play the penalty chance decides it, and a one in ten chance adds 0.21 of a stroke.

Which lay up distance is right on a par 5?

The one that leaves a full swing you trust. From the fairway the table moves only 0.15 of a stroke between 120 and 60 yards, so the comfortable number beats the closest number.

How much does water change a par 5 decision?

A penalty costs the stroke plus the replay, so each ten percent of penalty chance adds roughly 0.21 of a stroke to going for it. At three in ten the second shot is worth 2.882, and laying up wins comfortably.

Does missing the green on a par 5 matter?

Less than the penalty does. A miss into rough or sand around the green is priced at roughly two and a half strokes to hole out on the published table, which is why going for it survives a low hit rate when there is no penalty in play.

Which golf app does this on the course?

PinFlag, on iPhone. It prices any target on the hole you are playing before you swing, with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, draws your real shots on the hole with Shot Cloud, logs a shot in two taps with nothing to buy, and breaks every round down shot by shot. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: The go for it and lay up figures come from the site’s aim model with a stated green, pin offset and dispersion; the fairway table is the published baseline.

Get PinFlag for iPhone

PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.

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