Go for It or Lay Up?

Taking it on against laying up, in strokes, including which lay-up number is worth most.

Distance to the hole (yards)

Chance of a penalty going for it

Water, out of bounds, anything that costs a stroke and a replay. Percent.

Pin from the middle (yards)

Green radius (yards)

What is around the green

Going for it, against the strongest lay-up on the page

-0.141strokes

Going for it is worth fewer strokes with these numbers. You still choose.

Going for it2.463 strokes

Laying up to 60 yards2.604 strokes

Every lay-up number

Laying up is not one option, it is a choice of number. Closer is not always better once the swing stops being a full one, and this is where that shows.

Expected strokes for each lay-up distance
Lay up to	Expected strokes	Against going for it
60 yards	2.604	+0.141
80 yards	2.728	+0.265
100 yards	2.837	+0.374
120 yards	2.925	+0.462

How this is worked out

Two options, priced the same way and put side by side.

going for it = (1 - penalty chance) x strokes from the dispersion
+ penalty chance x (2 + strokes from where you stand - 1)
laying up = 1 + strokes from the wedge you leave yourself

The long shot is spread over a wide pattern, so some finish on the green and most finish around it, and each outcome is priced with the published expected strokes table. The lay-up costs the shot itself plus a much tighter wedge from the number you chose.

A penalty is the expensive part: it costs the stroke and the replay, close to two strokes every time it happens. That is why a small change in the penalty percentage moves the answer more than fifty yards of distance does.

Missing is cheap

The reason taking it on survives a low hit rate is that a miss around a green is priced near two and a half strokes to hole out. You rarely hit the green from 230 yards, and you rarely need to: the shots that finish beside it are still short shots. Water is what changes the arithmetic, not the green being small.

Lay-up numbers are close

The table shows the gaps between lay-up distances are small. Laying back to a full swing you like costs almost nothing against squeezing closer, which is the opposite of how most golfers play the shot.

Frequently asked questions

Should I go for the green in two on a par 5?

It turns on the penalty risk more than the distance. With no water in play, taking it on is usually worth strokes even when the green is rarely hit, because a miss around the green still leaves a short shot. Add a real chance of a penalty and that flips quickly.

What distance should I lay up to?

Closer is not automatically better. The table on this page prices every lay-up number, and the differences between them are usually smaller than golfers expect, which is why laying back to a comfortable full swing costs little.

How much does water in play change it?

A penalty costs the stroke plus playing the shot again, so it is close to two strokes each time. Even a one in ten chance moves the number materially, and this page lets you set that percentage yourself.

Does missing the green matter much?

Less than most golfers think. A miss into rough or sand around the green is priced at roughly two and a half strokes to hole out on the published tables, which is why going for it survives a low hit rate when there is no penalty risk.

By The PinFlag Team.

Before the swing, not after

This page prices one shot once you already know where it finished. PinFlag prices any target you are looking at, live on the hole you are playing, on 40,000+ courses. You pick the target and see the number before you swing.

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