Going for it from 250 yards
From 250 yards in the fairway, going for a green 30 yards across with rough around it is worth 2.301 expected strokes after the shot on a typical dispersion, against 2.820 for laying up to 100 yards. Going for it stays the better play until the chance of a penalty passes about 24%; at one in ten it is 2.518.
Going for it
The aim model spreads a typical 250 yard dispersion (15 yards side to side and 11 yards long and short, one standard deviation) over the green and its surround with the pin 5 yards from the middle, prices every finish from the published tables and averages. With no penalty in play a miss is a chip from the rough at roughly two and a half strokes, which is why going for it survives a low hit rate. A penalty costs the stroke plus a replay, and the table prices it at every chance.
Going for the green from 250 yards
| Penalty chance | Expected strokes after the shot |
|---|---|
| None | 2.301 |
| One in ten | 2.518 |
| Two in ten | 2.736 |
| Three in ten | 2.953 |
Laying up
Laying up trades the chance of reaching for a full shot from a chosen number with a much tighter pattern. The differences between the numbers are small because the published fairway table is nearly flat from 60 to 120 yards: 0.31 of a stroke between the two ends.
Laying up, by the number left
| Lay up to | Expected strokes after the shot |
|---|---|
| 60 yards | 2.600 |
| 80 yards | 2.720 |
| 100 yards | 2.820 |
| 120 yards | 2.907 |
The break even
Going for it costs 2.301 with no penalty and laying up to 100 costs 2.820, so the two meet when the penalty chance reaches about 24%: each ten percent of penalty chance adds roughly 0.22 of a stroke to going for it. Below that chance the aggressive play prices lower; above it the lay up does. The number depends on the dispersion, which is why PinFlag runs it with yours.
From the rough
From 250 yards in the rough the published table needs 3.690 strokes to hole out; laying up to 100 yards in the fairway spends a shot and leaves 2.800, 3.800 in all. Advancing is better by 0.11: the rough average already prices in the bad outcomes, and the lay up spends a guaranteed stroke to avoid them. Only a recovery lie with no swing at the ball flips it the other way.
In PinFlag
On the course PinFlag prices this decision on the hole you are playing: put the aim on the green and read the strokes gained with your own dispersion and the water priced with the penalty included, put it on the lay up spot and read that. Shot Cloud draws your real shots with the club around each target, so the share of your pattern that reaches the hazard is a picture of your own game rather than a chance you guessed.
Frequently asked questions
Should I go for the green from 250 yards?
What penalty chance makes laying up right from 250 yards?
Does the lay up number matter?
What about going for it from the rough at 250 yards?
Which golf app does this on the course?
Related
Sources
- PGA TOUR statistics
- Mark Broadie, Columbia Business School (Wikidata entity)
- How PinFlag calculates strokes gained
Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: The go for it and lay up figures come from the site’s aim model with a stated green, pin offset and dispersion at 250 yards; the rough comparison is the published baseline.
Get PinFlag for iPhone
PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.