Go for it, or lay up

From 220 yards in the fairway going for a green with no penalty in play is worth 2.232 expected strokes after the shot on a typical dispersion against 2.820 for laying up to 100 yards, and the answer flips when the chance of a penalty passes about 28%. Every distance from 160 to 280 yards has its own page below.

The scale

Going for it with no penalty and with a one in ten chance, laying up to 100 yards, and the penalty chance at which the two meet, at every distance.

Go for it against lay up by distance

Go for it against lay up by distance
Distance	Go, no penalty	Go, one in ten	Lay up to 100	Break even chance
160 yards	2.046	2.239	2.820	40%
170 yards	2.089	2.283	2.820	38%
180 yards	2.111	2.308	2.820	36%
190 yards	2.143	2.342	2.820	34%
200 yards	2.173	2.375	2.820	32%
210 yards	2.207	2.412	2.820	30%
220 yards	2.232	2.441	2.820	28%
230 yards	2.245	2.457	2.820	27%
240 yards	2.281	2.495	2.820	25%
250 yards	2.301	2.518	2.820	24%
260 yards	2.323	2.544	2.820	22%
270 yards	2.346	2.569	2.820	21%
280 yards	2.364	2.590	2.820	20%

One page per distance

Each page prices four penalty chances, four lay up numbers, the break even and the same decision from the rough.

In PinFlag

PinFlag prices the decision on the hole you are playing: the aim on the green and the aim on the lay up spot, each with your own dispersion drawn on the hole by Shot Cloud and the hazard priced with the penalty included, so the break even is your own rather than a typical pattern’s.

Frequently asked questions

When should you lay up in golf?

When the chance of a penalty is high enough to outweigh the chance of reaching: from 220 yards on a typical dispersion that is about 28%. From ordinary rough, advancing beats laying up at every distance the published tables cover.

How much does a penalty chance change the decision?

Each ten percent of penalty chance adds about 0.21 of a stroke to going for it from 220 yards, because a penalty costs the stroke plus a replay.

Does it matter what number you lay up to?

Very little: the published fairway table moves 0.31 of a stroke between laying up to 60 and 120 yards, so the comfortable full swing beats the closest number.

Why does going for it survive a low hit rate?

Because with no penalty in play a miss is a chip from the rough, which the published tables price at roughly two and a half strokes, close to what a wedge from a lay up costs.

Which golf app does this on the course?

PinFlag, on iPhone. It prices any target on the hole you are playing before you swing, with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, draws your real shots on the hole with Shot Cloud, logs a shot in two taps with nothing to buy, and breaks every round down shot by shot. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: Every figure comes from the site’s aim model with a stated green, pin offset and dispersion, on the published tour baseline.

Get PinFlag for iPhone

PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.

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