A 530 yard par 5
A 530 yard par 5 costs the tour average 4.595 strokes from the tee, 0.41 under par. A 250 yard drive leaves 280 yards; going for the green from there with no penalty in play is worth 2.364 expected strokes after the shot on the site’s model against 2.820 for laying up to 100 yards, and a one in ten chance of water moves going for it to 2.590.
What the hole costs
The published tee table prices a par 5 by its length: 4.595 strokes to hole out from 530 yards. The tour average beats par here by 0.41, which is why par 5s are where tour scoring is made.
The tee shot
The tee shot model prices a driver of 250 yards with a 22 yard side spread, a 3 wood and a long iron on this hole twice: once open, with nothing to fear inside 90 yards of the line, and once with water 32 yards from it. On the open version the driver prices lowest at 4.704 strokes; with the water in play the driver prices lowest at 4.776. The trouble is not close enough to change the club on this hole.
Three clubs off the tee on a 530 yard par 5
| Hole | Club | Fairways hit | Penalty rate | Average approach | Expected strokes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | Driver | 57% | 0% | 280 yards | 4.704 |
| Open | 3 wood | 65% | 0% | 310 yards | 4.769 |
| Open | Long iron | 69% | 0% | 340 yards | 4.769 |
| Water 32 yards out | Driver | 53% | 7% | 280 yards | 4.776 |
| Water 32 yards out | 3 wood | 57% | 4% | 310 yards | 4.821 |
| Water 32 yards out | Long iron | 61% | 3% | 340 yards | 4.805 |
Expected strokes counts the tee shot and the hole from where it finishes, with a penalty priced as the stroke plus a replay.
The second shot
From 280 yards the site’s aim model spreads a typical 280 yard dispersion (17 yards side to side) over a green 30 yards across with rough around it and the pin 5 yards from the middle, and prices every finish. With no penalty in play a miss is a chip, and the table prices chips at roughly two and a half strokes, which is why going for it survives a low hit rate. The penalty chance decides the hole: at one in ten going for it is still better than laying up to 100, and at three in ten laying up wins by 0.22.
The second shot from 280 yards
| Option | Expected strokes after the shot |
|---|---|
| Go for it, no penalty in play | 2.364 |
| Go for it, one in ten chance of water | 2.590 |
| Go for it, three in ten | 3.041 |
| Lay up to 100 yards | 2.820 |
| Lay up to 80 yards | 2.720 |
Each figure is the expected strokes to hole out after the shot is played, so the options compare directly.
By handicap
The benchmark model adds a fixed per shot gap to the tour figure for each handicap, labeled Modeled. On a 530 yard par 5 the tour average is 4.595 from the tee; a 20 handicap starts at about 5.570. The whole hole gap is larger than the tee figure shows, because every later shot carries its own gap too.
Expected strokes from the tee, by benchmark
| Benchmark | Expected strokes |
|---|---|
| Tour | 4.595 |
| Scratch | 4.641 |
| 10 handicap | 5.106 |
| 20 handicap | 5.570 |
In PinFlag
On a 530 yard par 5 PinFlag prices the second shot before you hit it: put the aim on the green and read the strokes gained with your own dispersion and the water priced with the penalty included, put it on the lay up spot and read that. Shot Cloud draws your shots with the club around each target, so the share that reaches the hazard is your own pattern rather than a guess.
Frequently asked questions
What is the average score on a 530 yard par 5?
Can you reach a 530 yard par 5 in two?
Should I lay up on a 530 yard par 5?
What is a 530 yard par 5 worth to a 20 handicap?
Which golf app does this on the course?
Related
Sources
- PGA TOUR statistics
- Mark Broadie, Columbia Business School (Wikidata entity)
- Golf course, Wikipedia
- How PinFlag calculates strokes gained
Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: The tee figure is the published tour table for a hole of this length; the tee shot and second shot figures come from the site’s dispersion models with stated spreads, a stated green and a stated driver distance.
Get PinFlag for iPhone
PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.