Expected strokes from the fairway
From the fairway the tour average needs 2.400 strokes to hole out at 20 yards, 2.980 at 160 yards and 3.710 at 300 yards on the published table. At 150 yards the fairway sits -0.25 against the rough. Every PinFlag number that starts from the fairway is priced from this table.
The table
The fairway table is the one most shots are priced against: the tour average strokes to hole out from the short grass at each distance. It is nearly flat from 60 to 120 yards and steepens above 150, which is why a drive that leaves a wedge is worth so much and a lay up to a particular number so little.
The benchmark columns add the per shot gap the benchmark model gives each handicap, labeled Modeled: Broadie’s published split of the strokes over the tour average, spread over stated shot counts.
Expected strokes from the fairway
| Distance | Tour | Scratch | 10 handicap | 20 handicap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 yards | 2.400 | 2.429 | 2.714 | 3.000 |
| 40 yards | 2.600 | 2.629 | 2.914 | 3.200 |
| 60 yards | 2.700 | 2.729 | 3.014 | 3.300 |
| 80 yards | 2.750 | 2.779 | 3.064 | 3.350 |
| 100 yards | 2.800 | 2.829 | 3.114 | 3.400 |
| 120 yards | 2.850 | 2.896 | 3.361 | 3.825 |
| 140 yards | 2.910 | 2.956 | 3.421 | 3.885 |
| 160 yards | 2.980 | 3.026 | 3.491 | 3.955 |
| 180 yards | 3.080 | 3.126 | 3.591 | 4.055 |
| 200 yards | 3.190 | 3.236 | 3.701 | 4.165 |
| 220 yards | 3.320 | 3.366 | 3.831 | 4.295 |
| 240 yards | 3.420 | 3.466 | 3.931 | 4.395 |
| 260 yards | 3.530 | 3.576 | 4.041 | 4.505 |
| 280 yards | 3.620 | 3.666 | 4.131 | 4.595 |
| 300 yards | 3.710 | 3.756 | 4.221 | 4.685 |
Reading it
Strokes gained for a shot is the expected strokes where it started minus the expected strokes where it finished, minus the strokes taken. Four shots from this lie, worked through on the same tables the app prices your shots with.
Shots from the fairway, worked
| Shot | Before | After | Strokes | Gained |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approach, 150 yards to 18 feet | 2.945 | 1.840 | 1 | +0.105 |
| Approach, 150 yards to 40 feet | 2.945 | 2.058 | 1 | -0.113 |
| Approach, 200 yards to rough 20 yards short | 3.190 | 2.590 | 1 | -0.400 |
| Wedge, 100 yards to 8 feet | 2.800 | 1.515 | 1 | +0.285 |
Against the other lies
The same distance from the fairway and from the lies a shot from here is usually weighed against.
The fairway against other lies
| Distance | Fairway | Rough | Sand |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 yards | 2.800 | 3.020 | 3.230 |
| 150 yards | 2.945 | 3.190 | 3.250 |
| 200 yards | 3.190 | 3.420 | 3.550 |
Where it starts and ends
The published fairway table runs from 20 yards to 300 yards. Inside the first anchor the value is held at 2.400 and beyond the last at 3.710, which the calculators and the app state rather than invent a number the source does not carry. Shots inside 20 yards are priced at the 20 yard value; the green is priced in feet from the putting table.
In PinFlag
PinFlag reads the lie from the course map, so a shot from the fairway is priced from this table without you typing a thing: the target you are considering is priced from it before you swing, with your own dispersion, and the shot you log is graded from it afterwards.
Frequently asked questions
What is the expected strokes from the fairway at 150 yards?
How is a shot from the fairway priced in strokes gained?
Where does the fairway table come from?
What happens outside 20 yards to 300 yards?
Which golf app does this on the course?
Related
Sources
- PGA TOUR statistics
- Mark Broadie, Columbia Business School (Wikidata entity)
- How PinFlag calculates strokes gained
Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: Every value is the published tour baseline for the fairway, with the benchmark columns from the site’s model; the table is held at its ends outside 20 yards to 300 yards.
Get PinFlag for iPhone
PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.