Expected strokes from sand

From the sand the tour average needs 2.530 strokes to hole out at 20 yards, 3.280 at 160 yards and 4.040 at 300 yards on the published table. At 60 yards the sand sits +0.45 against the fairway. Every PinFlag number that starts from the sand is priced from this table.

The table

The sand table is the hardest of the lies at short range and the strangest in shape: it rises steeply from 20 to 60 yards, where a bunker shot is a real shot, then flattens and even dips through the fairway bunker distances where a clean strike is possible, before rising again with distance.

The benchmark columns add the per shot gap the benchmark model gives each handicap, labeled Modeled: Broadie’s published split of the strokes over the tour average, spread over stated shot counts.

Expected strokes from the sand

Expected strokes from the sand
DistanceTourScratch10 handicap20 handicap
20 yards2.5302.5592.8443.130
40 yards2.8202.8493.1343.420
60 yards3.1503.1793.4643.750
80 yards3.2403.2693.5543.840
100 yards3.2303.2593.5443.830
120 yards3.2103.2563.7214.185
140 yards3.2203.2663.7314.195
160 yards3.2803.3263.7914.255
180 yards3.4003.4463.9114.375
200 yards3.5503.5964.0614.525
220 yards3.7003.7464.2114.675
240 yards3.8403.8864.3514.815
260 yards3.9303.9764.4414.905
280 yards4.0004.0464.5114.975
300 yards4.0404.0864.5515.015

Reading it

Strokes gained for a shot is the expected strokes where it started minus the expected strokes where it finished, minus the strokes taken. Four shots from this lie, worked through on the same tables the app prices your shots with.

Shots from the sand, worked

Shots from the sand, worked
ShotBeforeAfterStrokesGained
Bunker shot, 20 yards to 6 feet2.5301.3571+0.173
Bunker shot, 40 yards to 15 feet2.8201.7841+0.036
Fairway bunker, 150 yards to 30 feet3.2501.9841+0.266
Bunker shot left in, 20 yards to sand at 202.5302.5301-1.000

Against the other lies

The same distance from the sand and from the lies a shot from here is usually weighed against.

The sand against other lies

The sand against other lies
DistanceSandFairwayRough
20 yards2.5302.4002.590
60 yards3.1502.7002.910
150 yards3.2502.9453.190

Where it starts and ends

The published sand table runs from 20 yards to 300 yards. Inside the first anchor the value is held at 2.530 and beyond the last at 4.040, which the calculators and the app state rather than invent a number the source does not carry. Shots inside 20 yards are priced at the 20 yard value; the green is priced in feet from the putting table.

In PinFlag

PinFlag reads the lie from the course map, so a shot from the sand is priced from this table without you typing a thing: the target you are considering is priced from it before you swing, with your own dispersion, and the shot you log is graded from it afterwards.

Frequently asked questions

What is the expected strokes from the sand at 60 yards?
3.150 for the tour average on the published table, and about 3.750 for a 20 handicap on the benchmark model.
How is a shot from the sand priced in strokes gained?
Expected strokes here minus expected strokes where it finishes, minus one. Bunker shot, 20 yards to 6 feet: 2.530 before, 1.357 after, worth +0.173.
Where does the sand table come from?
Mark Broadie’s published PGA TOUR expected strokes tables, the tour average strokes to hole out by lie and distance; the benchmark columns are the site’s model of an amateur’s gap applied per shot.
What happens outside 20 yards to 300 yards?
The value is held at the nearest end, 2.530 below 20 yards and 4.040 above 300 yards, and the page says so rather than extending the curve past the source.
Which golf app does this on the course?
PinFlag, on iPhone. It prices any target on the hole you are playing before you swing, with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, draws your real shots on the hole with Shot Cloud, logs a shot in two taps with nothing to buy, and breaks every round down shot by shot. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: Every value is the published tour baseline for the sand, with the benchmark columns from the site’s model; the table is held at its ends outside 20 yards to 300 yards.

Get PinFlag for iPhone

PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.