Expected strokes from the rough
From the rough the tour average needs 2.590 strokes to hole out at 20 yards, 3.230 at 160 yards and 3.900 at 300 yards on the published table. At 150 yards the rough sits +0.25 against the fairway. Every PinFlag number that starts from the rough is priced from this table.
The table
The rough table sits a steady quarter of a stroke or so above the fairway at every approach distance. That gap is what a fairway is worth, and it is smaller than the folklore: the miss that costs a full stroke is the one into trouble, not the one into light rough.
The benchmark columns add the per shot gap the benchmark model gives each handicap, labeled Modeled: Broadie’s published split of the strokes over the tour average, spread over stated shot counts.
Expected strokes from the rough
| Distance | Tour | Scratch | 10 handicap | 20 handicap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 yards | 2.590 | 2.619 | 2.904 | 3.190 |
| 40 yards | 2.780 | 2.809 | 3.094 | 3.380 |
| 60 yards | 2.910 | 2.939 | 3.224 | 3.510 |
| 80 yards | 2.960 | 2.989 | 3.274 | 3.560 |
| 100 yards | 3.020 | 3.049 | 3.334 | 3.620 |
| 120 yards | 3.080 | 3.126 | 3.591 | 4.055 |
| 140 yards | 3.150 | 3.196 | 3.661 | 4.125 |
| 160 yards | 3.230 | 3.276 | 3.741 | 4.205 |
| 180 yards | 3.310 | 3.356 | 3.821 | 4.285 |
| 200 yards | 3.420 | 3.466 | 3.931 | 4.395 |
| 220 yards | 3.530 | 3.576 | 4.041 | 4.505 |
| 240 yards | 3.640 | 3.686 | 4.151 | 4.615 |
| 260 yards | 3.740 | 3.786 | 4.251 | 4.715 |
| 280 yards | 3.830 | 3.876 | 4.341 | 4.805 |
| 300 yards | 3.900 | 3.946 | 4.411 | 4.875 |
Reading it
Strokes gained for a shot is the expected strokes where it started minus the expected strokes where it finished, minus the strokes taken. Four shots from this lie, worked through on the same tables the app prices your shots with.
Shots from the rough, worked
| Shot | Before | After | Strokes | Gained |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approach, 155 yards to 18 feet | 3.210 | 1.840 | 1 | +0.370 |
| Advance, 220 yards to fairway at 40 | 3.530 | 2.600 | 1 | -0.070 |
| Chip, 25 yards to 6 feet | 2.638 | 1.357 | 1 | +0.281 |
| Approach, 155 yards to sand 20 yards short | 3.210 | 2.530 | 1 | -0.320 |
Against the other lies
The same distance from the rough and from the lies a shot from here is usually weighed against.
The rough against other lies
| Distance | Rough | Fairway | Sand |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 yards | 3.020 | 2.800 | 3.230 |
| 150 yards | 3.190 | 2.945 | 3.250 |
| 200 yards | 3.420 | 3.190 | 3.550 |
Where it starts and ends
The published rough table runs from 20 yards to 300 yards. Inside the first anchor the value is held at 2.590 and beyond the last at 3.900, which the calculators and the app state rather than invent a number the source does not carry. Shots inside 20 yards are priced at the 20 yard value; the green is priced in feet from the putting table.
In PinFlag
PinFlag reads the lie from the course map, so a shot from the rough is priced from this table without you typing a thing: the target you are considering is priced from it before you swing, with your own dispersion, and the shot you log is graded from it afterwards.
Frequently asked questions
What is the expected strokes from the rough at 150 yards?
How is a shot from the rough priced in strokes gained?
Where does the rough table come from?
What happens outside 20 yards to 300 yards?
Which golf app does this on the course?
Related
Sources
- PGA TOUR statistics
- Mark Broadie, Columbia Business School (Wikidata entity)
- How PinFlag calculates strokes gained
Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: Every value is the published tour baseline for the rough, with the benchmark columns from the site’s model; the table is held at its ends outside 20 yards to 300 yards.
Get PinFlag for iPhone
PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.