Expected strokes from a recovery lie
From a recovery lie the tour average needs 3.800 strokes to hole out at 100 yards, 3.870 at 200 yards and 4.200 at 300 yards on the published table. At 200 yards the recovery sits +0.68 against the fairway. Every PinFlag number that starts from a recovery lie is priced from this table.
The table
A recovery lie is a position with no full swing at the target: trees, a bush, a bank. The table runs from 100 to 300 yards and sits close to 3.8 strokes across most of it, which is the arithmetic behind chipping out: a lay up to the fairway spends a stroke to buy a lie the tables price far better.
The benchmark columns add the per shot gap the benchmark model gives each handicap, labeled Modeled: Broadie’s published split of the strokes over the tour average, spread over stated shot counts.
Expected strokes from a recovery lie
| Distance | Tour | Scratch | 10 handicap | 20 handicap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 yards | 3.800 | 3.829 | 4.114 | 4.400 |
| 120 yards | 3.780 | 3.826 | 4.291 | 4.755 |
| 140 yards | 3.800 | 3.846 | 4.311 | 4.775 |
| 160 yards | 3.810 | 3.856 | 4.321 | 4.785 |
| 180 yards | 3.820 | 3.866 | 4.331 | 4.795 |
| 200 yards | 3.870 | 3.916 | 4.381 | 4.845 |
| 220 yards | 3.920 | 3.966 | 4.431 | 4.895 |
| 240 yards | 3.970 | 4.016 | 4.481 | 4.945 |
| 260 yards | 4.030 | 4.076 | 4.541 | 5.005 |
| 280 yards | 4.100 | 4.146 | 4.611 | 5.075 |
| 300 yards | 4.200 | 4.246 | 4.711 | 5.175 |
Reading it
Strokes gained for a shot is the expected strokes where it started minus the expected strokes where it finished, minus the strokes taken. Four shots from this lie, worked through on the same tables the app prices your shots with.
Shots from a recovery lie, worked
| Shot | Before | After | Strokes | Gained |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chip out, 200 yards to fairway at 100 | 3.870 | 2.800 | 1 | +0.070 |
| Go for it, 200 yards to 30 feet | 3.870 | 1.984 | 1 | +0.886 |
| Go for it, 200 yards to rough at 40 | 3.870 | 2.780 | 1 | +0.090 |
| Chip out, 150 yards to fairway at 80 | 3.805 | 2.750 | 1 | +0.055 |
Against the other lies
The same distance from a recovery lie and from the lies a shot from here is usually weighed against.
The recovery against other lies
| Distance | Recovery | Fairway | Rough |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 yards | 3.800 | 2.800 | 3.020 |
| 200 yards | 3.870 | 3.190 | 3.420 |
| 300 yards | 4.200 | 3.710 | 3.900 |
Where it starts and ends
The published recovery table runs from 100 yards to 300 yards. Inside the first anchor the value is held at 3.800 and beyond the last at 4.200, which the calculators and the app state rather than invent a number the source does not carry.
In PinFlag
PinFlag reads the lie from the course map, so a shot from a recovery lie is priced from this table without you typing a thing: the target you are considering is priced from it before you swing, with your own dispersion, and the shot you log is graded from it afterwards.
Frequently asked questions
What is the expected strokes from a recovery lie at 200 yards?
How is a shot from a recovery lie priced in strokes gained?
Where does the recovery table come from?
What happens outside 100 yards to 300 yards?
Which golf app does this on the course?
Related
Sources
- PGA TOUR statistics
- Mark Broadie, Columbia Business School (Wikidata entity)
- How PinFlag calculates strokes gained
Every figure on this page is computed from the published baselines, the same ones PinFlag prices your shots with. The scope of the figures: Every value is the published tour baseline for a recovery lie, with the benchmark columns from the site’s model; the table is held at its ends outside 100 yards to 300 yards.
Get PinFlag for iPhone
PinFlag shows you this number on the course, for the shot in front of you, before you swing: any target priced with your own dispersion and the lie read from the course map, your real shots drawn on the hole, and two taps to log. Golfer is $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, with a 14-day trial on the annual plan through the App Store.